Supposedly, the future is now. But are modern marvels like self-driving cars safe enough to be a viable option yet?

What was once a staple of science fiction is now seemingly on the cusp of fully integrating into society.

With companies like Tesla, Google, General Motors, and many more developing and refining their own versions of autonomous vehicles, it’s only a matter of time before we see driverless taxis in every major city.

But as they stand now, how safe are self-driving cars? Are they safer than human drivers? How much longer will it be until they’re ready for mass adoption? 

Let’s find out.

How Safe Are Self-Driving Cars?

Recent research into this controversial technology shows results that are as promising as they are concerning.

A study published this month by the Nature Communications Journal analyzed accident data from 2,100 autonomous driving systems and 35,113 human-driven vehicles. Surprisingly, they found that self-driving cars had fewer accidents in most comparable accident situations. 

But there’s a catch.

In other scenarios, such as dawn, dusk, and when the cars were turning, they were far more likely to have an accident than human-driven vehicles. When turning, self-driving cars were almost twice as likely to crash. In the low light of dusk and dawn, they were a shocking five times as likely.

Researchers suggested these glaring differences may be due to a potential lack of situational awareness and ability to adjust to changes in lighting conditions. 

There’s so much to keep track of during a turn, and it’s very possible that the sensors and cameras in self-driving cars simply can’t identify and address every obstacle they encounter while turning. Like sensory overload but for “robotaxis.”

As for the tricky lighting, it likely has to do with the onboard technology struggling to make sense of the glares, shadows, and reflections that occur at dusk and dawn, making it difficult to tell what’s what.

The fact that emerging research shows self-driving cars experience fewer accidents than human-driven cars in certain situations is impressive. 

But the massive hurdles listed above, coupled with fatal crashes and industry recalls from autonomous vehicle companies like Cruise and Waymo due to numerous accidents (some of which involving pedestrians), it’s safe to say that they’re far from being road ready.

What is the Accident Rate for Self-Driving Cars?

A 2013 study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute compared California accident records from Google, Delphi, and Audi’s self-driving programs to crashes involving human-driven vehicles. 

The evidence they found was damning for self-driving cars. Results showed that, on average, there were 9.1 self-driving vehicle crashes per million miles traveled—over double the average of 4.1 crashes per million miles for humans.

Now, this study was conducted over ten years ago, so the data isn’t exactly up to date, and self-driving technology has undoubtedly advanced quite a bit since then.

But more recently, additional data have shed light on accident rates and potential upsides of autonomous vehicles.

A study released in 2020 compared statistics on the types of collisions for both automated and human-driven cars in California from 2015 to 2017. Here’s a quick breakdown of the key findings: 

• Most self-driving car accidents (64%) were rear-end incidents, compared to just 28.3% for conventional vehicles.
• Broadside accidents, commonly known as T-bone collisions, accounted for only 5.7% of self-driving vehicle crashes, a mere fraction of the 25.8% recorded for human-driven cars.
• 16.3% of conventional vehicle accidents involve pedestrians, compared to 0% for autonomous vehicles.

Additionally, after issuing a standing general order requiring manufacturers to report any accidents involving cars equipped with automated driving systems, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found there were 392 crashes involving these vehicles from July 2021 to May 2022.

While these findings are a decent way to gauge where things stand now, it’s tough to directly compare accident data because the technology has yet to be adopted by the masses. 

Research is certainly limited at this point, but what we have so far suggests that, while they have a long way to go, autonomous vehicles may eventually help cut back on specific types of accidents, such as pedestrian and broadside collisions.

What is the Biggest Problem With Self-Driving Cars?

With limited research, it can be hard to nail down what the biggest problem is, but we’ve learned a few key issues so far:

• Accidents are five times more likely in low-light conditions
• Accidents are almost twice as likely when turning 
• Fatal crashes
• Nationwide recalls
• Higher overall collision rates (based on data from 2013)

But that’s not all.

As it turns out, the primary power source for autonomous vehicles—the lithium-ion battery—comes with a major safety risk. 

If they overheat or catch fire, they can explode, resulting in life-threatening consequences for anyone in the car. Not to mention, lithium-ion fires are particularly difficult to put out, increasing the likelihood of harm to the passengers and damage to the car and surrounding area.

Finally, we can’t talk about the ever-increasing computerization of cars without addressing the parallel increase in the risk of cyberattacks. 

Companies put a ton of time and effort into preventing hackers from taking control of your vehicle and accessing the personal information stored in it, but that doesn’t mean they’re impenetrable. At a computer hacking competition in the spring of 2023, a cybersecurity expert put his skills on display by hacking into a leading electric vehicle’s infotainment system, just to show it could be done.

As these vehicles are outfitted with more and more technology, cybersecurity will only become more of a concern.

What Do the People Think?

Of course, many thousands of people already use cars with built-in driver assistance systems, with Teslas being the most popular.

But overall, how do people feel about this technology? Are they ready and willing to adopt it? Do they feel safe letting these systems take full control of their car? What if their loved ones or children are in the car with them?

A Forbes survey from earlier this year has some valuable insight.

They asked 2,000 Americans about their interest in self-driving cars, safety concerns, and more. Here’s what they learned:

• An astonishing 93% of Americans have reservations about self-driving cars, the two most common being safety and technology malfunctions.
• 69% have negative feelings (skepticism, concern, fear, boredom, and overall negative) about self-driving cars.
• Well over half of those surveyed (61%) don’t trust these vehicles with their children and loved ones.
• Just over half (51%) are somewhat or very unlikely to use an autonomous vehicle in the next five years.
• 30% are excited about the future of self-driving cars, and 29% would be willing to pay extra to own one.

Given everything we’ve discussed so far, it’s hard to say how long it’ll be before we reach mass adoption. 

But considering the accident risks, safety concerns, and highly negative public perception of self-driving cars, it’s safe to say it’ll be quite some time before we can hop in a driverless taxi without fear of a botched turn or malfunction-related collision.